Wildland Fire Situation Analysis
	
WFSA Information	

WFSA Number:  2

Fire Name:  Clover 2

Incident Number:  CA-ENF-15735

Date/Time Prepared:  09/14/2007  1030
	
Jurisdiction(s):  USFS

Geographic Area:  Northern California GACC

Unit:  Eldorado

Accounting or Management Code:  P5C65S
	
Fire Situation	

Start Date/Time:   8/28/2008  1600

Current Fire Size:   6 acres

Fuel Conditions
Fuel Models in the fire area can be described as scattered patches of NFFL Fuel Model 8 (closed timber litter), combined with open areas of rock. ERC's at the lower elevations on the Eldorado are running at the 97th percentile. At the higher elevations recent storm systems has lowered the ERC's to the 53rd percentile at the Meyers RAWS station in South Lake Tahoe.  

RERAP analysis for the probability of a season ending event was run utilizing historical weather data from the Meyers RAWS in Meyers, California. The season ending event is the probability of accumulating 1" of rain or more within a three day period. There is a 50% chance by September 15th; a 65% by October 4th; a 70% chance by October 15th; a 85 chance by October 25th; and a 100% chance by December 1st. 

Topography
High elevations near a ridgetops on southwest to southeast exposures. Extreme case scenario consist of various aspects, slope, fuel continuity, with intersecting drainages. 

Jurisdiction and Land Ownership in the Fire Area
Mostly forest service land, with the exception of the extreme case northern  perimeter runs at Twin Lake is owned by Pacific Gas and Electric. The land ownership east of the Meadow Lake Fire is owned by Pacific Gas and Electric. 

Fire Behavior - Current and Forecast
The fire activity increased on 9/12/2007 when southwest winds increased with gusts to 30 mph on exposed ridgetops. The fire grew from approximately 1/10 of an acre to 6 acres within a 24 hour period. Lower daytime  temperatures with higher relative humidity are forecasted for the next few days. However southwest winds with gusts to 30 mph over the exposed ridgetops could effect fire behavior on slopes with fuels aligned with the wind. Otherwise low rates of spread, with low intensity fire behavior is expected. The maximum fire behavior has been observed between 1200-1500 hours. 

Forecast Weather (3 and 10 day) and Current Seasonal Conditions
Spot Forecast for Clover 2 Fire 
National Weather Service Sacramento
613 PM PDT Thu Sep 13 2007

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE,
CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
#238-07

...GUSTY WINDS OVER RIDGES AND EXPOSED TERRAIN...

DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE FIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR TONIGHT
   WEATHER............MOSTLY CLEAR.
   TEMPERATURE........MIN 45-53
   HUMIDITY...........MAX 65-75%
   WIND...20-FT.......SOUTWEST 6 TO 12 MPH...EXCEPT OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 MPH EXPOSED AREAS.
   RIDGETOP WIND......SOUTWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
   CWR................0%
   LAL................1
   MIXING HEIGHT......LESS THAN 1000 FEET
   MIXING WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 11 MPH.

OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW
   WEATHER............SUNNY.
   TEMPERATURE........MAX 58-68
   HUMIDITY...........MIN 30-35%
   WIND...20-FT.......SOUTH WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH IN THE MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 MPH EXPOSED AREAS.
   RIDGETOP WIND......SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH.
   CWR................0%
   LAL................1
   MIXING HEIGHT......3500 FT
   MIXING WINDS.......SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE FIRE AREA. WINDS OVER RIDGES WILL
REMAIN GUSTY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT DECREASE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM GRADUALLY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL DECREASE TO LOCALLY 30-35% BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECASTER...BB / SG
REQUESTED BY...BOB PATTON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20070913.CLOV.01/STO

National and Regional Fire Preparedness, and Suppression Resource Availability
Currently the forest has all resources available with the exception of four engines. Nationally the preparednness level is at 3, and regionally the preparedness level is a 4. With the Moonlight fire nearing containment, resources will become available. 

Decision Summary

Selected Alternative
A. Minimaum acreage alternative

     Most Cost Effective Alternative:   A. Minimaum acreage alternative

Selected Alternative Description
Use minimum impact suppression techniques and natural barriers to confine fire within this alternative.

Keep fire south of the major ridgetop that runs south of Twin Lakes through the wilderness boundary and the lower portions of sections 26 and 30. Keep fire west of Clover Valley OHV trail. Keep fire north of ridge running east to west through the middle of sections 1 and 6, dropping into Cache Creek. Keep fire east of Cache Creek. 

Rationale for selecting this alternative
The minimum acreage alternative has been selected because it has the highest safety score, the highest objectives score, and is the least cost alternative. FSPRO run validates the WFSA boundary selection. 

WFSA revision or amendment thresholds and protocol
The WFSA will be amended if the fire crosses outside the Minimum acreage alternative boundary, or the costs are exceeded. 

Critical fire management resources
Type 1 and Type 2 handcrews are in high demand. Rotor wing aircraft are in high demand. 

Special considerations
MIST tactics within the wilderness. A resource advisor will be assigned to the incident if the fire escalates in size. 

Trigger Points were developed considering the fires approach to private lands, wilderness boundaries, and the National Forest boundary with the Humbolt Toiyabe N.F. (HTF).  Actions at these Trigger Points will be taken as necessary depending on the threat, current and predicted fire behavior and fire weather. A RERAP analysis was conducted to assess the risk of the fire reaching trigger point prior to the season ending event.

Trigger Point 1 (TP-1) runs from Lower Blue Lake, south along the OHV trail to the Mokelumne River.

TP-1 is designed to prevent the fires spread east of Blue Creek, Deer Creek and the OHV trail that runs along those creeks.  Areas east of TP-1 consist of heavy, continuous fuels and close proximity to the HTF.
 
TP-1 actions.  As the fire approaches within ¼ mile of this TP-1 patrol and monitor fires progress with on the ground fire personnel.  Hold road, use portable pumps, hoselays, helicopter drops and burnout as necessary.  Minimum of 1 engine module, one module from a Type 2 IA Crew or a Fire Use Module (FUM) recommended.  

Risk Report for Trigger Point 1 (ATV trail East of Fire by Blue Creek)

Assessment Name:	Clover II	
Assessment Date:	9/17/2007	
Total Distance (ch):	111	
Total Risk:	24%	

Trigger Point 2 (TP-2) runs from the “no-name” creek and OHV trail intersection in Clover Valley in the NE ¼ of the NE ¼, S31,T9N, R19E.

TP-2 is identified as necessary to prepare for actions as the fire approaches TP-3.

TP- 2 actions.  If the fire hits trigger point 2 the fire will be monitored daily by air or ground.  Resources will be identified and ordered for TP-3 if necessary.

Risk Report for Trigger Point 2 (Unnamed creek between fire and trigger point 3)

Assessment Name:	Clover II	
Assessment Date:	9/17/2007	
Total Distance (ch):	154	
Total Risk:	16%	

Trigger Point 3 (TP-3) runs along the length of the rocky ridge from where it drops into Blue Creek in the SW ¼ of the SE ¼ of S30,T9N, R19E, then runs west along the ridge top to c Cache Creek.  

TP-3 is designed to protect the private land (PG&E) at Twin Lake and Lower Blue Lake.  

TP-3 actions.  As the fire approaches  TP 3 the fire will be held up on the ridge top by hotspotting, wet line, helicopter bucket drops and burning out, MIST tactics to be used.  

Risk Report for Trigger Point 3 (Line south of Twin Lake)

Assessment Name:	Clover II	
Assessment Date:	9/17/2007	
Total Distance (ch):	235	
Total Risk:	1%	

Risk Report for the Mokelumne River

Assessment Name:	Clover II	
Assessment Date:	9/17/2007	
Total Distance (ch):	255	
Total Risk:	<1%	

Analysis prepared by:	_____________________________________________	
 	 	
	_____________________________________________	

 	 	
________________________________________________	____________________	
Agency Administrator Approval	Date/Time	

Daily Review

$270,000	1,200	Estimated target suppression cost and size	

 National Preparedness Level	 Regional Preparedness Level	 Suppression cost to date	 Size to date	Selected alternative remains valid (Y or N)	By	Date	Time	

								

								

								

Final Review

The elements of the selected alternative were met on:

Date:__________________________     Time:______________________

By:__________________________________________________________
Agency Administrator

Objectives

Objective			
Economic			
Smoke impacts into Blue Lakes Recreation area, and Clover Valley OHV trail could discourage recreational use. 

Environmental/cultural			
Identify and protect cultural resources located on the shoreline of Twin Lakes, and along the Clover Valley OHV Trail. 
Inventoried Roadless Areas are currently under the direction of the 2001 Roadless Rule,
which states the there be no road construction or timber harvest in these IRAs,  and they are to be managed to maintain their roadless values.  There are no restrictions on fire suppression activities in the 2001 Roadless Rule, since fire suppression would not involve either road construction or timber harvest, and appropriate fire suppression activities would help to maintain their roadless values for recreation.

Social			
Provide adequate information signing at the Blue Lakes Recreation Area, and at the trailhead to Clover Valley OHV trail. Limit smoke impacts into the Blue Lakes Recreation Area to 30 days. 

MIST Tactics			
Fire suppression

•	Allow fire to burn to natural barriers. 
•	Use cold-trail, wet line or combination when appropriate. 
•	If constructed fireline is necessary, use only width and depth to check fire spread. 
•	Burn out and use low impact tools like swatter or 'gunny' sack. 
•	Minimize bucking and cutting of trees to establish fireline; build line around logs when possible. 
•	Constantly re-check cold trailed fireline. 
Hot-Line/Aerial Fuels 
•	Limb vegetation adjacent to fireline only as needed to prevent additional fire spread. 
•	During fireline construction, cut shrubs or small trees only when necessary. Make all cuts flush with the ground. 
•	Minimize felling of trees and snags unless they threaten the fireline or seriously endanger workers. In lieu of felling, identify hazard trees with a lookout or flagging.  Scrape around tree bases near fireline if it is likely they will ignite. 

Mopup/Ground Fuels 
 
•	Cold-trail charred logs near fireline; do minimal tool scarring. 
•	Minimize bucking of logs to extinguish fire or to check for hotspots: roll the logs instead if possible. Return logs to original position after checking and when ground is cool. 
•	Refrain from making bone yards; burned and partially burned fuels that were moved should be returned to a natural arrangement. 
•	Consider allowing large logs to burnout. Use a lever rather than bucking to manage large logs which must be extinguished. 
•	Use gravity socks in stream sources and/or a combination of water blivets and fold-a-tanks to minimize impacts to streams. 
•	Consider using infrared detection devices along perimeter to reduce risk 
•	Personnel should avoid using rehabilitated firelines as travel corridors whenever possible because of potential soil compaction and possible detrimental impacts to rehab work, i.e. water bars. 

Mopup/Aerial Fuels 
•	Remove or limb only those fuels which if ignited have potential to spread fire outside the fireline. 
•	Before felling consider allowing ignited tree/snag to burn itself out. Ensure adequate safety measures are communicated if this option is chosen. 
•	Identify hazard trees with a lookout or flagging. 
•	If burning trees/snag pose a serious threat of spreading fire brands, extinguish fire with water or dirt whenever possible. Consider felling by blasting when feasible. Felling by crosscut or chainsaw should be the last resort. 
•	Align saw cuts to minimize visual impacts from more heavily traveled corridors. Slope cut away from line of sight when possible. 

Campsite Considerations 
•	Locate facilities outside of wilderness whenever possible. 
•	Coordinate with the Resource Advisor in choosing a site with the most reasonable qualities of resource protection and safety concerns. 
•	Evaluate short-term low impact camps such as coyote or spike versus use of longer-term higher impact camps. 
•	Use existing campsites such as reserved sites used by outfitters if possible. 
•	New site locations should be on impact resistant and naturally draining areas such as rocky or sandy soils, or openings with heavy timber. 
•	Avoid camps in meadows, along streams or on lakeshores. Locate at least 200 feet from lakes, streams, trails, or other sensitive areas. 
•	Consider impacts on both present and future users. An agency commitment to wilderness values will promote those values to the public. 
•	Lay out the camp components carefully from the start. Define cooking, sleeping, latrine, and water supply. 
•	Minimize the number of trails and ensure adequate marking. 
•	Consider fabric ground cloth for protection in high use areas such as around cooking facilities. 
•	Use commercial portable toilet facilities where available. If these cannot be used a latrine hole should be utilized. 
•	Select latrine sites a minimum of 200 feet from water sources with natural screening. 
•	Constantly evaluate the impacts which will occur, both short and long term. 

Aviation Use Guidelines
•	Maximize back haul flights as much as possible.
•	Use long line remote hook in lieu of constructed helispots for delivery or retrieval ofsupplies and gear.
•	Use natural openings for helispots and paracargo landing zones as far as practical. If construction is necessary, avoid high visitor use areas.
•	Consider maintenance of existing helispots over creating new sites.
•	Obtain specific instructions for appropriate helispot construction prior to the commencement of any ground work.
•	Consider directional falling of trees and snags so they will be in a natural appearing arrangement.
•	Buck and limb only what is necessary to achieve safe/practical operating space in and around the landing pad area.

Safety Issues

Safety Issues			

Public Safety			
As Clover 2 grows in size and becomes visible, information signs at Blue Lakes recreation area, and at the Clover OHV trailhead. There are no major trails intersecting the WFSA boundaries, with the exception of the Stevenot trail located at the southeast portion of Extreme case scenario.  

Firefighter Safety			
Remote access could hamper rescue efforts in the event of an accident. In the event of prolonged engagement by fire resources, a safety officer and line EMT will be assigned to the incident.  

Aircraft Safety			
Pre-existing helispots will need to be located and approved prior to engagement. Aircraft incursions need to be limited within the wilderness. 

Alternatives

Alternative A. Minimaum acreage alternative	
Use minimum impact suppression techniques and natural barriers to confine fire within this alternative.The Meadow Lake, and Deadwood Fire will not increase in acreage. 

Target Outcome	Extreme Outcome	
Keep fire south of the major ridgetop that runs south of Twin Lakes through the wilderness boundary and the lower portions of sections 26 and 30. Keep fire west of Clover Valley OHV trail. Keep fire north of ridge running east to west through the middle of sections 1 and 6, dropping into Cache Creek. Keep fire east of Cache Creek. 
	Keep fire south of the north shore at Twin Lakes. Keep fire east of Clover Valley OHV trail.  Keep fire east of Cache Creek, and east of ridge running north towards the west shore of Twin Lakes.  Keep fire north of Stevenot Trail and the ridgetop running to the west into Cache Creek.  

Probability:	60%			Probability:	40%	
Final Fire Size:	1178 acres			Final Fire Size:	2048 acres	
Time to Contain:	30 days			Time to Contain:	50 days	
Time to Control:	35 days			Time to Control:	55 days	

Alternative B. Maximum acreage alternative	
Use minimum impact suppression techniques and natural barriers, and roads to confine fire within this alternative.The Meadow Lake, and Deadwood Fire will not increase in acreage. 

Target Outcome	Extreme Outcome	
Keep fire south of the north shore at Twin Lakes. Keep fire east of Clover Valley OHV trail.  Keep fire north of ridge running east to west through the middle of sections 1 and 6, dropping into Cache Creek. Keep fire  east of ridge running north towards the west shore of Twin Lakes.  
	Keep fire south of the north shore at Twin Lakes. Keep fire east of Clover Valley OHV trail.  Keep fire east of Cache Creek, and east of ridge running north towards the west shore of Twin Lakes.  Keep fire north of Stevenot Trail and the ridgetop running to the west into Cache Creek.  

Probability:	20%			Probability:	80%	
Final Fire Size:	1521 acres			Final Fire Size:	2048 acres	
Time to Contain:	40 days			Time to Contain:	50 days	
Time to Control:	45 days			Time to Control:	55 days	

Estimated Suppression Costs

Alternative A. Minimaum acreage alternative	
Target Outcome					Extreme Outcome	
1	Handcrew	10	days					1	Handcrew	20	days	
1	Helo T2/Crew	10	days					1	Helo T1/Crew	20	days	
Estimated suppression cost:  $270,000					Estimated suppression cost:  $820,000	
Basis for cost estimate:
Estimated suppression resources needed					Basis for cost estimate:
Estimated suppression resources needed	

Alternative B. Maximum acreage alternative	
Target Outcome					Extreme Outcome	
1	Helo T2/Crew	15	days					1	Handcrew	20	days	
1	Handcrew	15	days					1	Helo T1/Crew	20	days	
Estimated suppression cost:  $405,000					Estimated suppression cost:  $820,000	
Basis for cost estimate:
Estimated suppression resources needed					Basis for cost estimate:
Estimated suppression resources needed	

Resource Value Losses

Note: Outcome values, including totals, are rounded to 3 significant digits counting from the left.
Expected Impact is rounded to 2 significant digits.

Alternative A. Minimaum acreage alternative
Item	Target Outcome	Fallback Outcome	Extreme Case Outcome	Expected Impact	
Total (rounded)	$0		$0	$0	

Alternative B. Maximum acreage alternative
Item	Target Outcome	Fallback Outcome	Extreme Case Outcome	Expected Impact	
Total (rounded)	$0		$0	$0	

Safety Assessment

Alternative A. Minimaum acreage alternative	
Target Outcome	Fallback Outcome	Extreme Outcome	
Issue: Public Safety	
Rating: 7 / 10		Rating: 1 / 10	
			
Issue: Firefighter Safety	
Rating: 8 / 10		Rating: 2 / 10	
			
Issue: Aircraft Safety	
Rating: 8 / 10		Rating: 2 / 10	

Alternative B. Maximum acreage alternative	
Target Outcome	Fallback Outcome	Extreme Outcome	
Issue: Public Safety	
Rating: 4 / 10		Rating: 1 / 10	
			
Issue: Firefighter Safety	
Rating: 5 / 10		Rating: 2 / 10	
			
Issue: Aircraft Safety	
Rating: 4 / 10		Rating: 2 / 10	

Decision Tree

dxTextLeft0dyTextTop0dxTextRight0dyTextBottom0fFilled0fLine0A. Minimaum acreage alternative
shapeType20fFlipH0fFlipV1lineColor0lineWidth0dxTextLeft0dyTextTop0dxTextRight0dyTextBottom0fFilled0fLine0Expected Objectives Score:  6.2
Expected Safety Score:  5.3
Expected Cost: $490,000
Expected Loss: $0
shapeType20fFlipH0fFlipV1lineColor0lineWidth0dxTextLeft0dyTextTop0dxTextRight0dyTextBottom0fFilled0fLine060%
shapeType20fFlipH0fFlipV0lineColor0lineWidth0dxTextLeft0dyTextTop0dxTextRight0dyTextBottom0fFilled0fLine040%
dxTextLeft0dyTextTop0dxTextRight0dyTextBottom0fFilled0fLine0Target Outcome
shapeType20fFlipH0fFlipV1lineColor0lineWidth0dxTextLeft0dyTextTop0dxTextRight0dyTextBottom0fFilled0fLine0Size:  1178 acres.  Control: 35 days
Objectives Score:  9.2
Safety Score:  7.7
Estimated Cost:  $270,000
Estimated Loss:  $0
dxTextLeft0dyTextTop0dxTextRight0dyTextBottom0fFilled0fLine0Extreme Outcome
shapeType20fFlipH0fFlipV1lineColor0lineWidth0dxTextLeft0dyTextTop0dxTextRight0dyTextBottom0fFilled0fLine0Size:  2048 acres.  Control: 55 days
Objectives Score:  1.7
Safety Score:  1.7
Estimated Cost:  $820,000
Estimated Loss:  $0
dxTextLeft0dyTextTop0dxTextRight0dyTextBottom0fFilled0fLine0Basis for probabilities for strategy
Probabilities were derived by interpreting FSPRO data. Management action poiints will be developed to ensure fire does not cross the WFSA alternative boundary. 
dxTextLeft0dyTextTop0dxTextRight0dyTextBottom0fFilled0fLine0B. Maximum acreage alternative
shapeType20fFlipH0fFlipV1lineColor0lineWidth0dxTextLeft0dyTextTop0dxTextRight0dyTextBottom0fFilled0fLine0Expected Objectives Score:  2.5
Expected Safety Score:  2.2
Expected Cost: $740,000
Expected Loss: $0
shapeType20fFlipH0fFlipV1lineColor0lineWidth0dxTextLeft0dyTextTop0dxTextRight0dyTextBottom0fFilled0fLine020%
shapeType20fFlipH0fFlipV0lineColor0lineWidth0dxTextLeft0dyTextTop0dxTextRight0dyTextBottom0fFilled0fLine080%
dxTextLeft0dyTextTop0dxTextRight0dyTextBottom0fFilled0fLine0Target Outcome
shapeType20fFlipH0fFlipV1lineColor0lineWidth0dxTextLeft0dyTextTop0dxTextRight0dyTextBottom0fFilled0fLine0Size:  1521 acres.  Control: 45 days
Objectives Score:  5.7
Safety Score:  4.3
Estimated Cost:  $405,000
Estimated Loss:  $0
dxTextLeft0dyTextTop0dxTextRight0dyTextBottom0fFilled0fLine0Extreme Outcome
shapeType20fFlipH0fFlipV1lineColor0lineWidth0dxTextLeft0dyTextTop0dxTextRight0dyTextBottom0fFilled0fLine0Size:  2048 acres.  Control: 55 days
Objectives Score:  1.7
Safety Score:  1.7
Estimated Cost:  $820,000
Estimated Loss:  $0
dxTextLeft0dyTextTop0dxTextRight0dyTextBottom0fFilled0fLine0Basis for probabilities for strategy
Probabilities were derived by interpreting FSPRO data. Management action poiints will be developed to ensure fire does not cross the WFSA alternative boundary.