Wildland Fire
Situation Analysis
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| WFSA Information |
WFSA Number:
2
Fire Name:
Clover 2
Incident Number:
CA-SQF-967
Date/Time Prepared:
06/23/2008 7:04 PM
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Jurisdiction(s):
USFS/BLM
Geographic Area:
South Sierra Wilderness
Unit:
Sequoia N.F./Inyo N.F.
Accounting or Management Code:
P5D7KH override 0513
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| Fire Situation |
Start Date/Time:
05/31/2008 12:00 PM
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Current Fire Size:
15,217 acres
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Fuel Conditions
Dense pinyon juniper stands on ridgetops, mixed with brush on slopes.
Topography
Steep rocky terrain, 80% slope.
Land Ownership in the Fire Area
U.S. Forest Service, BLM, Private
Fire Behavior
Backing down slopes toward flats, individual tree torching.
Weather Conditions
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Dry weather will continue over the fire site, with no chance of wetting rain through Friday. There is a small risk of dry lightning late in the week, but this is very uncertain at this time. Winds at the lower elevations will be mainly driven by the terrain, especially in the night and morning hours. Winds above the ridge line are expected to be 20 knots or less through Wednesday.
Tuesday
Max temp 95-99
Min RH 8-13 percent
20 ft 10 min avg - upslope /upvalley 4-9 MPH becoming southwest 9-14 MPH in the afternoon
LAL 1
Transport Winds - Northeast 6 to 8 knots in the morning becoming light and variable
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Suppression Resource Availability
Extremely limited nationally and regionally
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| Decision Summary |
Selected Alternative |
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A. Combination direct and indirect attack
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| Selected Alternative Description |
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Keep the fire north of Kennedy Meadows and Lewis Creek
Keep the fire west of the Aqueduct Road using a combination of aircraft and equipment to protect private property and cultural and environmental resources.
Keep the fire east of the western boundary of the South Sierra Wilderness
Keep fire south of Haiwee Pass Trail and Road and the Kern River
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| Rationale |
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| WFSA revision or amendment thresholds and protocol |
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| Critical Fire Management resources |
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| Special considerations |
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| Agency Administrator Approval |
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Date/Time |
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| Daily Review |
$8,500,000
45,000 acres
Estimated target suppression cost and size
| National
Preparedness Level |
Regional
Preparedness Level |
Suppression
cost to date |
Size
to date |
Selected Alternative remains valid (Y or N) |
By |
Date |
Time |
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Final Review
The elements of the selected alternative were met on:
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Time:
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| By:
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Agency
Administrator |
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| Values at Risk |
| Threatened
Item |
Potential
Loss |
Probability
of Loss |
Expected Value
at Risk |
| Powerlines, power relay stations, LA Aquaduct, homes and ranches |
$500,000 |
100% |
$500,000 |
| Total Expected Value at Risk
(rounded) |
$500,000 |
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| Suppression Objectives |
Economic
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Keep fire away from private property and homes at Sage Flat and Dun Movin
Keep fire away from powerlines and DWP Aqueduct
Keep fire away from private property at Tunewee Ranch and Portugese Bench, microwave repeater and private residences in Hogback Creek
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Environmental
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Desert tortoise habitat
Mohave ground squirrel habitat
Archeological resources on private and federally managed lands
Minimum impact suppression techniques in Sacatar and South Sierra Wilderness
Areas of federally non attainment for PM 10
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Social
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Keep fire away from private property and homes at Sage Flat and Dun Movin
Keep fire away from private property at Tunewee Ranch and Portugese Bench
Keep fire away from microwave repeater and private residences in Hogback Creek
Keep fire away from powerlines, DWP Aqueduct
Smoke and visibility on Highway 395; mobilizing fire equipment safely and public safety
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| Safety Issues |
Safety Issues
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Hiking in steep terrain
Hazard trees
Smoke
Dehydration
Rolling debris
Driving on steep slopes
Lightning/thunderstorms
Sanitation
Extreme fire behavior
Snakes, bears, ticks, etc.
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High winds
Powerlines
High elevation
Erratic winds
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Smoke and visibility on Highway 395
Equipment on Highway 395
Hikers in South Sierra Wilderness at Haiwee Pass and Sage Flat
Homeowners within the fire area
Air quality due to smoke
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| Alternatives |
| A.
Combination direct and indirect attack
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Keep the fire north of Kennedy Meadows and Lewis Creek
Keep the fire west of the Aqueduct Road using a combination of aircraft and equipment to protect private property and cultural and environmental resources.
Keep the fire east of the western boundary of the South Sierra Wilderness
Keep fire south of Haiwee Pass Trail and Road and the Kern River
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| Target Outcome |
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Fallback Outcome |
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Extreme Case Outcome |
Keep the fire north of Kennedy Meadows and Lewis Creek
Keep the fire west of the Aqueduct Road using a combination of aircraft and equipment to protect private property and cultural and environmental resources.
Keep the fire east of the western boundary of the South Sierra Wilderness
Keep fire south of Haiwee Pass Trail and Road and the Kern River
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Fire resources would not be able to protect resources at risk.
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| Probability: 80% |
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Probability: 20% |
| Final Fire Size: 45000 acres |
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Final Fire Size: 71000 acres |
| Time to Contain: 10 days |
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Time to Contain: 20 days |
| Time to Control: 20 days |
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Time to Control: 30 days |
Probability Rationale:
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| B.
Indirect attack
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| Target Outcome |
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Fallback Outcome |
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Extreme Case Outcome |
Keep fire north of Portugese Canyon and Kennedy Meadows
South of Hogback Creek and Olancha Pass
West of Highway 395 using a combination of aircraft and equipment to protect private property and cultural and environmental resources
Keep the fire east of the western boundary of the South Sierra Wilderness
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Fire resources would not be able to protect resources at risk.
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| Probability: 95% |
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Probability: 5% |
| Final Fire Size: 65000 acres |
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Final Fire Size: 71000 acres |
| Time to Contain: 15 days |
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Time to Contain: 20 days |
| Time to Control: 25 days |
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Time to Control: 30 days |
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| Estimated Suppression Costs |
| Alternative
A. Combination direct and indirect attack
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| Target Outcome |
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Fallback Outcome |
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Extreme Case Outcome |
Estimated suppression cost: $8,490,000
Basis for cost estimate:
On June 26th, the Clover Fire suppression cost for the selected alternative was adjusted from $5,190,000 to $8,490,000. More accurate cost estimates show the fire has spent approximately $400,000/day. This includes the costs of several strike teams of Type 1 structure protection engines that have now been released. Smoke visibility problems resulting in the inability for aircraft to fly has prolonged fire containment dates and increased cost estimates. Logistical and communications issues regarding the safe and efficient support of crews on the fire resulted in the need to split the fire into two zones utilizing two incident management teams. This contributed to the increase in cost.
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Estimated suppression cost: $0
Basis for cost estimate:
Historic average cost per acre |
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Estimated suppression cost: $9,890,000
Basis for cost estimate:
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| Alternative
B. Indirect attack
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| Target Outcome |
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Fallback Outcome |
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Extreme Case Outcome |
Estimated suppression cost: $9,290,000
Basis for cost estimate:
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Estimated suppression cost: $0
Basis for cost estimate:
Historic average cost per acre |
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Estimated suppression cost: $9,890,000
Basis for cost estimate:
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| Values Threatened |
Note: Outcome values, including totals, are rounded to 3 significant digits
counting from the left.
Expected Impact is rounded to 2 significant digits.
| Alternative
A
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Combination direct and indirect attack
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| Item |
Target Outcome |
Fallback Outcome |
Extreme Case Outcome |
Expected Impact |
| Powerlines, power relay stations, LA Aquaduct, homes and ranches |
$2,000 |
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$500,000 |
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| Total (rounded) |
$2,000 |
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$500,000 |
$100,000 |
| Alternative
B
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Indirect attack
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| Item |
Target Outcome |
Fallback Outcome |
Extreme Case Outcome |
Expected Impact |
| Powerlines, power relay stations, LA Aquaduct, homes and ranches |
$45,000 |
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$500,000 |
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| Total (rounded) |
$45,000 |
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$500,000 |
$68,000 |
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| Safety Assessment |
| Alternative
A
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Combination direct and indirect attack
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| Target Outcome |
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Fallback Outcome |
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Extreme Case
Outcome |
| Issue:
Fire Fighter Safety
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Hiking in steep terrain
Hazard trees
Smoke
Dehydration
Rolling debris
Driving on steep slopes
Lightning/thunderstorms
Sanitation
Extreme fire behavior
Snakes, bears, ticks, etc.
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Hiking in steep terrain
Hazard trees
Smoke
Dehydration
Rolling debris
Driving on steep slopes
Lightning/thunderstorms
Sanitation
Extreme fire behavior
Snakes, bears, ticks, etc.
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| Rating: 10/10 |
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Rating: 3/10 |
| Issue:
Aviation Safety
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High winds
Powerlines
High elevation
Erratic winds
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High winds
Powerlines
High elevation
Erratic winds
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| Rating: 10/10 |
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Rating: 3/10 |
| Issue:
Public Safety
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Smoke and visibility on Highway 395
Equipment on Highway 395
Hikers in South Sierra Wilderness at Haiwee Pass and Sage Flat
Homeowners within the fire area
Air quality due to smoke
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Smoke and visibility on Highway 395
Equipment on Highway 395
Hikers in South Sierra Wilderness at Haiwee Pass and Sage Flat
Homeowners within the fire area
Air quality due to smoke
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| Rating: 10/10 |
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Rating: 3/10 |
| Alternative
B
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Indirect attack
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| Target Outcome |
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Fallback Outcome |
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Extreme Case
Outcome |
| Issue:
Fire Fighter Safety
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Hiking in steep terrain
Hazard trees
Smoke
Dehydration
Rolling debris
Driving on steep slopes
Lightning/thunderstorms
Sanitation
Extreme fire behavior
Snakes, bears, ticks, etc.
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Hiking in steep terrain
Hazard trees
Smoke
Dehydration
Rolling debris
Driving on steep slopes
Lightning/thunderstorms
Sanitation
Extreme fire behavior
Snakes, bears, ticks, etc.
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| Rating: 10/10 |
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Rating: 3/10 |
| Issue:
Aviation Safety
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High winds
Powerlines
High elevation
Erratic winds
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High winds
Powerlines
High elevation
Erratic winds
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| Rating: 10/10 |
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Rating: 3/10 |
| Issue:
Public Safety
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Smoke and visibility on Highway 395
Equipment on Highway 395
Hikers in South Sierra Wilderness at Haiwee Pass and Sage Flat
Homeowners within the fire area
Air quality due to smoke
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Smoke and visibility on Highway 395
Equipment on Highway 395
Hikers in South Sierra Wilderness at Haiwee Pass and Sage Flat
Homeowners within the fire area
Air quality due to smoke
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| Rating: 10/10 |
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Rating: 3/10 |
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| Decision Tree |
| Alternative
A
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Target Outcome |
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Combination direct and indirect attack
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80% |
45,000.00 acres, 20 days to control
Objectives score: 4.4
Safety score: 10.0
Estimated Cost:
-$8,490,000
Estimated Loss:
-$2,000
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Expected Objectives Score: 3.6
Expected Safety Score: 8.6
Expected Cost:
-$8,770,000
Expected Loss:
-$101,600
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Extreme
Case Outcome |
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20% |
71,000.00 acres, 30 days to control
Objectives score: 0.2
Safety score: 3.0
Estimated Cost:
-$9,890,000
Estimated Loss:
-$500,000
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| Alternative
B
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Target Outcome |
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Indirect attack
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95% |
65,000.00 acres, 25 days to control
Objectives score: 2.2
Safety score: 10.0
Estimated Cost:
-$9,290,000
Estimated Loss:
-$45,000
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Expected Objectives Score: 2.1
Expected Safety Score: 9.7
Expected Cost:
-$9,320,000
Expected Loss:
-$67,750
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Extreme
Case Outcome |
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5% |
71,000.00 acres, 30 days to control
Objectives score: 0.2
Safety score: 3.0
Estimated Cost:
-$9,890,000
Estimated Loss:
-$500,000
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